PACERS

How 'clutch' is Paul George?

Nat Newell
nat.newell@indystar.com
Paul George of Indiana, Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Wednesday, April 10, 2017. Indiana won 104-86 to make the playoffs.

The statistic was surprising.

According to a tweet from ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Indiana Pacers star Paul George is an NBA-worst 0-for-15 on potential go-ahead shots in the final 20 seconds of games since he entered the league.

'Clutchness' ('Clutchativity?') is a slippery statistic to define. Why 20 seconds? Why only go-ahead shots? Using Basketball Reference's Play Index, I expanded the parameters to 30 seconds and included potential -tying shots for the last five seasons.

Paul George still doesn't come out well: 4-of-30, 13.3 percent. That's tied for 83rd among the 89 players who have attempted at least 10 such shots during that stretch.

Using those parameters, of course, doesn't capture every clutch moment. It leaves out George's 3-pointer with 40 seconds left versus Cleveland that brought the Pacers within 109-108, certainly a clutch shot. Drawing a foul and hitting two free throws is no less clutch but Play Index -- a fantastic tool that allows you to search numerous game situations -- doesn't give an option for free throws. Or assists in those situations, for that matter.

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A little more context after looking at the numbers:

• Hitting winning or tying shots isn't easy. The overall shooting percentage of the qualifying players in that situation is .320.

• Big men have more success. No. 1 on this list? Marc Gasol at 10-of-13, 76.9 percent. Al Horford is third (9-of-16, 56.3) and Anthony Davis (5-of-10, 50.0) tied for fifth. This demonstrates just how little of the full picture of these situations is captured in this statistic. A perimeter player will eventually have to force a difficult shot. A post player is only going to get the ball if he's open inside, significantly raising his chances of success.

• The top of this list isn't dominated by superstars. Dirk Nowitzki (7-of-14, 50.0), Kevin Love (5-of-10, 50), Klay Thompson (6-of-12, 50), Damian Lillard (16-of-37, 43.2) and James Harden (14-of-33, 42.4) have all been successful. But O.J. Mayo is second (7-of-11, 63.6), with Dennis Schroeder (5-of-10, 50.0), Evan Turner (7-of-14, 50.0), Courtney Lee (5-of-12, 41.7) and Danny Green (5-of-12, 41.7) also appearing high on the list.

• A few other players of note: The top current Pacer? Jeff Teague (5-of-11, 45.5). Kevin Durant (12-of-32, 37.5); LeBron James (10-of-27, 37.0); Gordon Hayward (7-of-22, 31.8); Stephen Curry (10-of-32, 31.3); John Wall (9-of-29, 31.0); Russell Westbrook (16-of-55, 29.1; the next highest number of attempts is 37); Kawhi Leonard (4-of-14, 28.6); Kobe Bryant (5-of-19, 26.3; the data goes back to 2001-02 with Bryant at 29.1 percent for that period); and Carmelo Anthony (9-of-37, 24.3).

Here is the list of players who have fared the worst shooting the ball in this situation:

89. Mo Williams, 1-of-13, 7.7 percent

88. Tyreke Evans, 1-of-12, 8.3 percent

86. Jose Calderon, 1-of-10, 10.0 percent

86 .Eric Gordon, 1-of-10, 10.0 percent

85. Trevor Ariza, 2-of-16, 12.5 percent

83. Paul George, 4-of-30, 13.3 percent

83. Reggie Jackson, 4-of-30, 13.3 percent

Another measure of clutch would be his performance in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime and the game within three points. Using this metric (again, with the help of Basketball Reference's Play Index), George was 11th in the NBA this season in effective field goal percentage (which gives more credit for hitting 3s):

1.LeBron James, 66.7 percent

2.C.J. McCollum, 61.6

3.Isaiah Thomas, 57.3

4.Jimmy Butler, 55.1

5.Stephen Curry, 53.4

6.Kyle Lowery, 53.4

7.Kemba Walker, 52.1

8.Eric Bledsoe, 51.5

9.Bradley Beal, 51.4

10.Paul Millsap, 50.0

11.Paul George, 49.4

Note: minimum of 41 attempts