Gluck: Will runner-up jinx continue with new rules package?

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. --Kevin Harvick’s brow furrowed when he heard the statistic.

“Tell that to me again?” he said.

Sure, Kevin. Here it is: In the past eight seasons, the drivers who finished second in the Sprint Cup Series have a combined total of one win the following year.

That’s eight championship-contending drivers – some who narrowly missed winning the title themselves – with 39 total wins during their season of near-glory.

And the year afterward? With the exception of Denny Hamlin in 2011, not one of them went to victory lane.

That includes drivers like Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards (who has done it twice) and Matt Kenseth.

Of all drivers, you wouldn’t think that would happen to Harvick. He strung together two of the most dominant seasons in recent memory, with a combined eight wins, 37 top-fives and 48 top-10s, all while leading more than 2,100 laps each year. He just missed pulling off back-to-back titles.

“Well, our main goal after we won the championship (in 2014) was not to flop,” Harvick said. “So maybe that’ll be a good goal for (this) year, to make sure you don’t follow that stat.”

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On the other hand, the approaching season has a gigantic unknown already built in – and it has nothing to do with Harvick’s team, which is relatively intact despite losing engineer Mike Bugarewicz (who became Tony Stewart’s crew chief).

No, the real wild card is the cars. NASCAR will use a lower downforce aerodynamic rules package at all tracks except Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway this year, which Harvick acknowledged could shake things up.

“When you look at everything we have (this) year, it could be a possibility for anybody to flop -- just because there are so many unknowns,” he said.

The cars will handle differently. They’ll react differently to others around them. The tires each week likely will be different than the ones used at the same track in 2015.

“You could either be way off,” Harvick said, “or you could capitalize on it as a company and win a lot of races.”

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In all likelihood, there are going to be some drivers in each category. That might mean a driver like Jimmie Johnson gets his groove back after two somewhat down years (by his own lofty standards) under a higher-downforce package. Or it could mean a driver who had been successful every week suddenly is behind.

The rules package is a big enough change that it could be the top storyline early in the season after NASCAR leaves Daytona and rolls into 1.5-mile tracks like Atlanta Motor Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Those first few downforce-track races – the ones where “clean air” often becomes a major factor – could tell the story of which team will dominate the opening months of 2016.

And although it’s possible to make gains during the season – just look at Joe Gibbs Racing last year, which won 14 of 36 races, nine of them after the midway point – there’s no guarantees the competition will slow enough to let others play catch-up.

So will Harvick and his powerhouse No. 4 team be victims of the rules change, the second-place jinx or both?

Harvick was eighth and fifth in the two lower downforce package races last year - at Kentucky Speedway and Darlington Raceway - so it’s not like he’s a prime candidate to suddenly fall off the map. And with ace crew chief Rodney Childers, it’s more likely Harvick will be the driver who snaps the second-place jinx than one who continues it.

“That’s an interesting stat,” Harvick said with a smile. “But hopefully we can continue doing what we’ve been doing.”

Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck