Georgia election result makes clear that U.S. House is in play in 2018

A special election this week in Georgia that turned into a referendum on President Trump has made one thing clear: the U.S. House is in play in 2018 — something that, until recently, was considered highly unlikely.

While the Democrat, Jon Ossoff, fell just shy of cracking the 50% threshold needed to win the seat outright, his Tuesday showing is a dramatic swing from just a few months ago, when Republican Tom Price won the seat by a comfortable 24-point margin. Price is now Trump's Health and Human Services secretary.

The race now goes to a June 20 runoff with Republican Karen Handel, and nonpartisan political experts agree it’s too close to call for a seat that’s been held by Republicans, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, for nearly 40 years.

The fact that Ossoff even has a chance of winning explains why there’s any doubt over continued Republican control of the House. “The fact that it’s so close suggests the House is in play,” said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Trump’s election is the best thing that’s happened to Democrats chances of retaking the House,” he said.

Even with Trump’s narrow victory over Hillary Clinton last fall, Democrats were never supposed to have a chance at retaking the House because Republicans enjoy such a strong advantage due to GOP-led redistricting. According to Cook Political estimates, Republicans only need to win 32% of swing districts while Democrats need 69% to win control.

“We used to think of the House as gone forever because of redistricting,” said Wasserman. “This (the Georgia race) was a pretty good result for Democrats in that it shows progress,” he said.

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take control of the House, which they lost during President Obama’s first midterm election in 2010. There are 71 districts that are more favorable to Democrats than the suburban Atlanta district where Ossoff and Handel are in a heated race, according to the Cook partisan voter index. Further, there are currently 23 Republicans representing districts that Democratic presidential candidate Clinton won in 2016, including those members like New Jersey’s Leonard Lance, who have been dogged by constituents over Trump’s Affordable Care Act replacement, and others like California’s Darrell Issa, who won by less than one percentage point.

A lackluster first 100 days

The negative climate for vulnerable Republicans could intensify over the next 18 months, depending on public sentiment over Trump’s potential corporate conflicts of interest, investigations into his ties to Russia and whether he’s able to win approval of any of his domestic policy goals like tax reform. In his first 100 days, there have been no major legislative accomplishments and Republicans are preparing to reintroduce an Obamacare replacement, with the previous one standing at 17% approval.

“If Republicans don't have much to show in the way of accomplishments, that will only exacerbate this existential threat,” said Doug Heye, previously a top aide to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican.

“Republicans in suburban districts — filled with what are now being labeled 'Panera voters' — like Lee Zeldin in Long Island, Ryan Costello in suburban Philadelphia, Leonard Lance from New Jersey, have real cause for concern,” said Heye. “Republicans need to take this seriously,” he said.

There are plenty of skeptics. "You will have to count me among the 'doubting Thomases,'" said Rhodes Cook, a nonpartisan analyst for the University of Virginia's "Crystal Ball." The effects of gerrymandering and a relatively small playing field next year, combined with a recent record of GOP House dominance, will make it really difficult for Democrats to steal seats away, he said. "Yes, the Democrats could win the House of Representatives. But in my mind, the burden of proof is on them," said Cook.

History shows the midterm elections typically go against the party in power. The trend goes at least back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 71-seat loss in 1938. More recently, Obama lost 63 seats in his first midterm election. While Republican President George W. Bush picked up 8 seats in 2002, he lost 30, and control of the House, in his second midterm election in 2006.

Still, in the context of 2018, the numbers betray the fact that these 23 potentially vulnerable seats where Clinton won and Democrats have their best chances could be difficult to pry from Republican hands. That's because many are occupied by incumbents who won by sizable margins. According to the National Republican Congressional Committee, in those 23 districts, the Republican incumbents won in 2016, on average, with a comfortable 12-percentage-point margin.

Further, Democrats won’t be able to pump $8 million into each of these races, as they did with Ossoff in Georgia. It’s also unclear whether infighting during the primary season will stunt Democrats in the same way that the Tea Party initially hurt moderate Senate Republican candidates more capable of winning a general election. This week, Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is on a unity tour with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a de facto leader of the progressive wing of the party after his popular primary run against Clinton. Even so, Sanders has refused to specifically endorse Ossoff.

According to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's latest numbers, there have already been 300 individual candidate recruitment conversations in over 70 districts, a huge number compared to recent cycles. “The Democrats are kind of kids in a candy shop right now,” said Wasserman.

On the congressional level, a few upcoming races may give Republicans a false sense of security. Special elections in the coming months will be held in Montana and South Carolina, places where the Democrats are much less likely to eke out a win. In Kansas last week,  Democrat James Thompson lost to Republican Ron Estes by just 7 points in a district Trump carried in November by 27 points.

“Even if Democrats fall short in all four of the special elections this spring, they could all bode poorly for the Republicans heading into next year” because of the close margins, said Wasserman.

Read more:

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