Kansas, Georgia elections 'wake-up call' for Republicans

WASHINGTON — U.S. House special elections this week in Kansas and Georgia are showing Democrats making inroads in traditionally conservative Republican districts, offering the first snapshot of the U.S. political landscape after President Trump’s inauguration.

On Tuesday night, the Republican Ron Estes, the state treasurer, won the southern Kansas district around Wichita by just five points. It's a district Trump carried by 27 points in November.

This is despite the fact that the official Republican campaign committee poured $100,000 in ads into protecting the seat, vacated by Trump’s new CIA Director Mike Pompeo, and took a series of last-minute steps to bolster the margin, including a Monday visit from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and taped robo-calls from Trump and Vice President Pence. In comparison, the national Democrats devoted hardly any national resources to the race as smaller individual donors directed funds to the Democrat.

“It’s a wake-up call,” said David Wasserman, the House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The outcome of the Kansas race sets the scene for a much closer contest in Georgia next Tuesday. Democrat John Ossoff is within striking distance in a district previously represented by Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary, Tom Price. Republicans, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, have occupied the seat for 37 years.

Both races test whether the anti-Trump grassroots activism taking place across the country can translate into electoral success for Democrats. Trump was closely watching the race, sending out an early morning tweet congratulating Estes and incorrectly claiming that Democrats “spent heavily” in the race and predicted a win for themselves. Democrats did neither, with their involvement limited to a round of live, get-out-the-vote calls in the final days.

The terrain in both states indicates there may be a combination of waning enthusiasm among Trump’s voters and declining approval ratings among independents as the president struggles to accomplish any of the major legislative goals he set out during the campaign, including replacing Obamacare, tax reform and a big infrastructure overhaul.

“There are also Trump loyalists in the electorate who don’t particularly love congressional Republicans,” said Wasserman. “If their enthusiasm is waning that’s a real problem for Republican congressional candidates in a midterm,” he said.

Still, it’s not clear the race was a pure referendum on Trump and his policies. Much of Thompson’s strategy was to tie Estes to the unpopular Republican governor, Sam Brownback, versus Trump.

In a statement, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the results portend a broader trend. “Kansas’ 4th Congressional District is ruby red and should never have been on the table – this massive swing from the 2016 presidential results should set off alarm bells for House Republicans. It’s not just Independents, but clearly Republicans who are bailing on the GOP, and very few districts are safe," said DCCC communications director Meredith Kelly.

Democrats face long odds in retaking control of the U.S. House. Republicans are in control and Democrats would need to gain 24 seats to take over. Many Republican districts were redrawn as part of the 2010 Census, making them safe, so Democrats would have to actually win in places like Georgia’s 6th to be successful. In Kansas, Estes won with 52.5% of the vote and Democrat James Thompson garnered 45.7%.

Republicans issued a statement saying a victory is a victory, without mentioning the margin. “By electing Ron Estes, Kansas rejected the far-left policies of liberal activists and voted to keep delivering on the promises we made to the American people," said NRCC chairman Steve Stivers.

Georgia

Unlike in Kansas, Democrats are making a significant push to actually steal this seat from Republicans.

In a place where Democrats normally pull in about $10,000, Democrat Jon Ossoff raised $8.3 million during the first quarter of the year and volunteers have flooded in as the Democratic resistance makes the race a symbol of their opposition. Some 95% of Ossoff’s donations have come from outside Georgia, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The district lines have changed over the years and changing demographics have made the seat more competitive. In November, Hillary Clinton lost by just one point, with 47% of the vote.

If Ossoff can’t reach 50% on Tuesday, the race would go to a June 20 runoff between the top two vote getters. If that happens, Republicans would likely coalesce around a single opponent, making it harder for Ossoff to capture the seat. Right now, the GOP vote is fragmented among a number of candidates. There are a total of 18 candidates running for the seat.